|Weekly Analysis: (Week ending 4/29). The EIA reported a stockpile build of 2,800 mb. This is 4 weeks in a row that we have seen stockpile builds, and this is really starting to put a "top" on the oil rally. We (Bulls) desperately need a stockpile draw next week to try to get some mementum back. Looking at the data, what stands out the most is:
Production: Down an amazing 113,000 bpd., 83,000 bpd. of this decline was from Alaska, and was more then likely attributed to their seasonal maintenance. Never the less, that still left a decline of 30,000 bpd. from the Lower 48. Needless to say, this is bullish. Not including the large drop from Alaska, production is down 327,000 bpd. so far this year. A significant decline in production.
Imports: After last weeks large decline in Imports, it would stand to reason that we would see a large increase in imports (300k to 400k increase), instead we saw a moderate increase of only 110,000 bpd. This could be very good news. I am hoping that this finally means Imports are "moderating". Notice that last year during this same time (see Import chart above), Imports moderated, and did not go back up nearly as much as earlier in the year. I am hoping that this trend will continue this summer.
Refinery Inputs: Here is the major reason why we haven't see a stockpile draw yet. We saw refinery inputs increase a measly 139,000 bpd on this report. We are running 361,000 bpd. less year over year, and that is even with gasoline demand at hightened levels. Refinery Inputs hit 16,433,000 bpd. back on the first week of April, and it has been down ever since. Clearly this is maintenace related reasons why we are running behind of last years pace. Needless to say, we need to see Refinery Inputs back up around 16,500 to 17,000 real soon, and then hopefully by late July we will be pushing 18,000 bpd. Without an major increase in Refinery Inputs, we will not see stockpile draw any time soon. I would look for a very large spike in Refinery inputs very soon (hopefully next week).
Gasoline Demand (and related liquids): Were all mostly up this week. In fact, overal liquids demand was up a solid 413,000 bpd. Demand is strong, and this certainly is giving some strength to oil. See the demand graphs (http://bburmeister.com/page15.php)
Gasoline Stockpiles (and related liquids): Overall Gasoline and related liquids fell by 700,000 bpd, although gasoline itself increased by 500,000 bpd. This was more then offset by the large stockpile declines in Kerosene, Distillates and Residual Fuel. See the stockpiles graphs (http://bburmeister.com/page14.php)
Overall this was a mixed bag of good news and bad news. Overall we saw ANOTHER stockpile build (these are getting old). On the posative side, stockpiles of other liquids declined, and gasoline demand went up big again. The future still looks bright, if only we can get through the refinery maintenance season, and get the refineries humming along at about 95% of capacity. If that happens, then we will start seeing truly massive stockpile draws.
Key Stats: (Updated 5/4)
Average Weekly Stockpiles year over year are down by 2,498,000 barrels.
Average Weekly Inputs to Refineries year over year are up 317,000 bpd. (This number is shrinking, which is not good)
Year over Year Crude Oil Production is down 544,000 bpd.
Average Weekly Increase in Imports in 2015: +594,000 bpd.
Gasoline Demand was up 2.0% week over week.
Gasoline Demand is up 8.16% year over year.
Gasoline Demand is up 16.46% so far this year (2016).
Links to the other pages of EIA data/graphs: